PROCUREMENT STRATEGY
Procurement has been rocked with events which have fundamentally transformed the way businesses operate. From the COVID-19 global pandemic to geopolitical tensions and climate-driven events, procurement teams have found themselves at the epicentre of managing the unthinkable. These‘ black swan’ events – which are often defined as low-probability, high-impact occurrences that catch organisations off guard – have reshaped how businesses approach supply chain resilience.
Alex Saric, Smart Procurement Expert at Ivalua, and Graham Copeland, Head of Services Sales Europe at GEP, share their insights on how procurement leaders can not only survive but thrive when facing the unexpected.
The reality check: traditional risk models fall short The shortcomings of conventional risk assessment became starkly apparent in recent years. Graham points to glaring examples of how traditional forecasting missed the mark, saying:“ Traditional risk models rank risks by likelihood and severity, but history shows they often miss the mark. For instance, WEF’ s widely regarded risk report rated infectious disease low just before COVID, and interstate conflict was downplayed before Russia’ s invasion of Ukraine.” This has forced procurement leaders to reconsider their entire approach to risk management.
Rather than attempting to forecast the unforecastable, successful organisations are pivoting towards building resilience into their supply chains.
The statistics paint a concerning picture of industry preparedness. A recent GEP survey revealed that nearly half of companies lack any formal supply chain risk assessment practices – a sobering reminder of how many organisations remain vulnerable to disruption.
Recent black swan events have demonstrated the need to abandon the futile pursuit of predicting every
140 October 2025